Lintao Zhang | Pool | Getty Images
Chinese President Xi Jinping attends Roundtable Summit Phase One Sessions of Belt and Road forum on May 15, 2017.
As for how markets will react to the continued trade war gyrations, Brill said to expect more “swings.”
Washington and Beijing are careening toward the March conclusion of a 90-day agreement not to implement new tariffs on each other, but analysts have seen some positive signs out of this week’s three-day round of talks in Beijing.
That won’t be enough, though, and there are still some thorny issues left to iron out, Brill said.
“The market sentiment will be very much dependent on what’s going on in the trade talks,” he said. “We’ve seen some progress this week, some good news, but it was just a start. I think there (are) still some obstacles along the way and we’re far away from really a solution.”
“So this is going to weigh from time to time on markets — but in case we see progress, it can always be also relief for markets and spur some good market movements,” he added.
Overall, Brill said he was taking a neutral stand on stocks. Last month’s declines corrected some of the excesses in valuations, he said, but there were still significant risks — including the ongoing U.S. government shutdown — on the horizon.
“For us it’s too early to go really strong into the markets already now … because we have still some severe uncertainties weighing on markets: The economic outlook is clouded by quite a bit of uncertainty — with the shutdown, not only the trade talks,” he said. “So, it very much depends what the next couple of weeks will bring.”