Even with their support, the outlook doesn’t look good, the analyst said. “Even if May clears the Cabinet hurdle today, several ministers doubt that the proposed deal will get through the (House of) Commons. For now, the parliamentary numbers are heavily stacked against her,” he said.
Others believe the Cabinet could reject the draft. “It cannot be ruled out that members of parliament (and/or the cabinet at its 14 November, 2 p.m. meeting) at first reject the deal,” Carsten Nickel, deputy director of research at Teneo Intelligence, said in a note late Tuesday.
“Ultimately, however, there is no majority for no deal in parliament. While cabinet resignations are certainly possible, and a Tory confidence vote cannot be ruled out, it remains unlikely that a majority of Tory MPs opts for ousting May,” he said.
If May can get her Cabinet’s backing, that paves the way for a special summit with the EU dedicated to Brexit at the end of November.
Indeed, whatever obstacles Theresa May overcomes at home, it’s easy to forget that the other 27 members of the EU have to agree the deal too. EU Ambassadors from the 27 member countries will meet in Brussels later Wednesday to discuss the proposals.
“There remains a risk of further stumbling blocks arising between now and an extraordinary EU leaders’ summit scheduled for November 25,” Rahman said in his note. “Member states, led by France, will be looking to see particularly whether their concerns over maintaining a ‘level playing field’ are addressed in the draft.”